A COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS OF THE POSSIBLE APPOITNMENT OF RALF RANGNICK BY MILAN

Much has been said about Rangnick and his possible arrival to take the hotseat at Milan. Gazidis flatly denied when asked in December, Maldini and Boban showed their displeasure at his appointment and Rangnick himself spoke of contacts with the top brass of Milan but no agreement reached.

The fanbase has been divided over this decision. While some are excited about the prospect of Rangnick joining Milan, the expense it comes at, that of the the sacking of Paolo Maldini, makes Milan fans emotional as Paolo stands for everything that has been Milan and it’s splendour.

Therefore I believe a comprehensive analysis is needed to understand Milan’s situation and why Elliot seem to press for Rangnick.

The Singer Family

A CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER OF EVENTS

To understand the extent of the crisis we face it because imperative to construct a chronology to grasp it.

1. The 2012 mass exodus: 2012 represent a power shift in Serie A and the start of the era for Juve. Milan finished second in Serie A and Antonio Conte’s Juve side finished with the scudetto. To balance the book Milan sold it’s 2 best players for €63M to the latest Billionaire i.e PSG from France. This was followed by the mass retirement/end of contract for Milan’s old guard. Nesta, Seedorf, Inzaghi, Zambrotta, Gattuso all his farewell to the San Siro at the end of the season.

Inzaghi, Zambrotta and Nesta paying respect to the fans that had come to support them

2. The Lean years: With Zlatan and Silva sold and legends retiring, a dearth of talent possessed Milan. While Milan signed Balotelli, Matri, Constant, Acerbi and Bakaye Traore it never bridged the gap left by the legends of the club. This followed with little or no investment from Milan’s patron Silvio Berlusconi. All of Milan’s success in the previous years came with the investments of Berlusconi but post 2012 he did not invest into any areas of Milan and hence the well dried and Milan were making losses and debts for the club thanks in part to a damaged Italian economy.

3. Free agents and inflated wages: With no money invested by Silvio and club plunged into losses, the management was forced to sign players who were at the end of their contracts or bossman’s. This inflated Milan’s wage bill grossly (free agents are signed at higher wages than what they used to earn as the demand for the player s higher than a normal transfer) and it led to taking a toll on our already crippled finances

4. The Sale of Milan and Fasobelli Disaster class: Finally in 2017, Silvio sold Milan to much unknown Chinese man YongHong Li. He in turn appointed Fassone as the CEO and Mirabelli as the Sporting Director. Milan spend 250M in that transfermarket which is now a memory in every Milanisti’s head. They brought in a totak of 11 players and negotiated the renewal of prodigy goalkeer Donnarumma with super-agent Mino Raiola in a very protracted saga. However a season with high hopes ended in despair as all of Milan’s new signings went bust. The club reached the Europa league thanks to a mini-revival under Gattuso but still missed the intended Champions league mark by a huge point margin.

Milan’s €250M transfermarket. Credits: BR football

5. Leonardo adding salt to the wounds: The Chinese failed to cough up the €32M money it owed to money lender and Vulture fund Elliot. As a result they took over Milan and appointed Leonardo as the Director. Milan beat a ban on it from playing in Europe by UEFA and with only one month left in the market Leonardo’s experience was expected to come forth. He negotiated a player swap with Juventus for the departing Bonucci for Caldara, signed Higuain on a highly paid loan with option to buy, signed Castillejo, Bakayoko on a loan and Laxalt as a backup for the Strinic who was diagnosed with a heart ailment. However come December, Higuain jumped ship to Chelsea and Milan got in super striker Ktystoff Piatek and the next brazilian sensation Lucas Paqueta. However Milan still did not reach the top 4 spots and Leonardo left the club with Elliot changing its course.

6. Current season: With Leonardo leaving, Maldini took over the role of Director and brought in his old teammate Zvominir Boban to Milan. Toghether Maldini and Boban conducted some shrewd business. They brought in Theo Hernandez, Bennacer, Lēao, Rébic, Duarte and Krunic. However their appointmet of Marco Giampaolo as a coach didn’t last longer than 7 games and was sacked with Pioli brought in as a temporary fix. Milan then saw its worst result in 23 years when they got trashed by Atalanta and were threatened getting into a relegation fight. This forced the club to bring back it’s legend Zlatan Ibrahimoviç, albeit 7 years older than when he left and Simon Kjær for the defence. This brought and upturn in fortunes and Milan are now actively fighting for European football next season until the season was brough to a halt due to the corona pandemic.  In the same winter market that saw Zlatan return to Milan, Milan sold it’s misfiring striker Ktystoff Piatek, injury prone Caldara and the ever polarising Suso. Milan also loaned out players Reina and Rodriguez making a gain of a total €35M in salaries and trasnfer fees.

THE FINANCES OF THE CLUB

In the footballing calendar the dates July 1st to June 30th constitute a financial year. All finances of the club are prepared acoording to this calendar. I thank Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) for their amazing work to collect Milan’s financial details for the season 2018-19 which incidentally is our best season post 2012-13 in terms of sporting achievements.

– Milan’s loss after tax widened 20M from the previous season (17-18) to €146M. The worst in Serie A.

Milan’s financial statement. Credit:(@SwissRamble)

– The major contributor towards our expenditure is our over-inflated wage bill which rose to €185M (inc.€34M)

Our major expenses Credits:@SwissRamble

– This brings our total losses (before tax) upto €543M in the last 6 years.

– Major cause of these losses could attribute to poor player recruitment over the years along with bad sales. The total profit for Milan in last 5 years is only €55M while Juve have made €417M, Roma made €391M and even Inter made €185M

– Milan have only made €29M from participating in European compeition while Juventus has made €451M, Roma has made €255M and Napoli made €188M

– Milan’s total revenue of €228M is behind Juventus’  €494M, Inter’s €370M and Roma’s €236M. In terms of loss Milan have the highest loss in Serie A, €100M more than Juventus and Inter.

Milan compared to rest of the Serie A. Credits:(@SwissRamble)

– In 2004, Milan were ranked 3rd in the money leagues (Clubs making most revenue) , but now have dropped to 21st in the rankings.

A close look at these metrics can give us a fair understanding as to why Scaroni chose to say “Why are Milan not doing well? Milan have €200m revenue and Real Madrid €700m. It means they can buy better players and pay them more.” It is the imperative need of the hour that Milan start making money again do that a sort of balance can be restored for it to reach the top of the money leagues again.

THE TRYST WITH THE  UEFA FINANCIAL FAIR PLAY

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With clubs recklessly overspending money to get player, UEFA has to step in to restore balance and ensure a level playing field. They brought out the Financial Fair Play (FFP). The financial fair play which covers pages and pages of rules of information requires teams to spend money in the mercato based on its earnings. The spending should be in propotionate to the revenue the club earns and  and the capital gain it makes on player sales along with the profit/loss it makes in a 3 year period. This rule works as per the law of *seperate legal entity* i.e it sees the club seperate from the owners of this club. This means thag FFP has limited owner spending for the club.

As I have pointed to Milans financial’s in the earlier part, Milan’s losses are very huge and FFP is not very supportive of our club’s violation of the rules. Milan were initially banned for the violation of the FFP rules during the period 2014-2017 for 1 year but it was successfully appealed by Elliot in the Court of Arbitration for Sport. Milan were allowed to play Europa admist a heavy fine. Milan were once again found to have violated the FFP for the period 2015-2018 and in tandem with UEFA agreed to sit out the 2019-20 Europa league to wipe the slate clean.

Now the objective of the owners will be to enter an agreement with UEFA called the settlement agreement to prevent repeated violations and appeal at the CAS. The settlement agreement would see Milan come under imposition of a lot of restrictions as dictated by UEFA. One of the restrictions would be to cut down the clubs losses to €30M and squad size restrictions in case of playing in Europa League. (Number of players allowed to play in EL will be less).

With the arrival of the COViD-19 pandemic UEFA has suspended FFP montitoing of clubs for the 2019-20 season. However this does not mean that FFP will be suspended entirely either.

This brings an end to Part-1 of this length analysis.

SCOUTING PROFILE- SAMUEL CHUKWUEZE

Role at Villareal

One of the most important things to understand Chukwueze’s style of play is his role in Setien’s setup at Villareal. When Emery was the coach of Villareal he required more defensive discipline and work rate even from his wingers however Setien gave Chukwueze the license to roam and drift infield.

Being an extremely left footed player Chukwueze is used as an inverted winger in Setien’s tactics. Towards the defensive third and the middle third Chuk likes to stay wide right and cuts more inside when approaching the final 3rd. Playing as the Right Winger in a 4-3-3 his movements depend on the opposite flank as much as the corresponding mezzala of his side (mostly Capoue). He would stay wide right to allow Capoue to make runs through the half spaces. Of course it is not excluded that while Chuk cuts inside, Capoue could overlap him.

Setien is a coach that grew up with Cryuffian philosophies which makes him very mindful of possession. Villareal averaged 60% possession for games after the World Cup which is the highest in La Liga. What Setien wanted from his front 3 was to pin the opposition defense back up to the half line by always creating a fear of counters. Chuk meanwhile was seen as the outlet to progress the ball from Villareal’s defensive half to the offensive half.

Also, last season Villareal mostly played with either a ball playing 9 or a false 9 in Jackson and Yeremy Pino. Pino would drop in between the lines to allow Chuk and the Left Winger to make runs ahead of him while he would collect the vertical pass and then turn it towards either of the wingers. Villareal usually liked to implement fast and direct attacks.

Perhaps this meant that they don’t like to cross the ball as much given how Villareal don’t have a physical presence upfront like how Milan Giroud. For this reason, Villareal only average 1.37 crosses per 90 as compared to Milan’s 2.32 crosses per 90. Wingers are instructed to rather take their man on and dribble inside the box before attempting low crosses or if that is not possible, they are asked to pass back and recycle possession to try and pierce the opposition defenders through the inside channels.

Strengths

Close Control and Dribbling: Close Control where the ball sticks to your feet like glue is an art that cannot be taught. It is a very rare skill. Something only the greats have done. Chukwueze has close control and it is extremely difficult to dispossess him. This is a skill that can come to use when Milan look to break down deep blocks

1v1 skills: His close control gives him ability to dribble out of tight spaces and change angles very quickly which helps to put defenders out of balance. It is a skill that helps you always get the better of your man

Pace: To beat your man you need pace not just without the ball but also with the ball. Chukwueze has tremendous pace and with a shot frame he is agile with and without the ball

Deft touches: Quick release of the ball takes out defenders very easily. Like Ruben Loftus Cheek showed in the build up to Romero’s goal, his touch created space and took defenders out of the sequence. Chukwueze can do the space inviting defenders to press him and then releasing quickly the ball to a teammate to take advantage of the space vacated by the defender.

Shooting: Chukwueze’s very underrated ability is his ability to get a shot out. He is able to generate lots of power and placement with his foot which is extremely difficult for keepers to save especially when it is placed very well

WEAKNESS

Physicality: Standing at 171 cm, the Nigerian isn’t the most sizeable player and can be prone to being roughed up a bit. It is difficult for people to catch up to him given his pace and his agility but knowing how Italian league and coaches think a player like Baschirotto would look to challenge him shoulder to shoulder to neutralize his threat.

Crossing: Once again this is very debatable given how Villareal don’t appear to be a team that likes to cross a lot. But Chukwueze barely crosses the ball and always attempts to take his man on rather than cross the ball but this also could be due to the fact that there aren’t very tall players (except defenders) in the Villareal team.

Lapses of concentration- Chuk is prone to passing errors when he takes his eye off the ball sometimes. He generates a few mis-passes which if he can iron out of his game can make him a top class player.

TACTICAL FIT

I don’t think there is a debate as to what position Chukwueze would play but how would Pioli use him is the big question. Given how Chukwueze is used to playing in a 4-3-3 and plays as an inverted winger similar to Messias, one can imagine he will be handed the same role.

Pioli likes to keep the size of the playing area compact vertically and horizontally meaning he employs a high defensive line and has his wingers cut inside to not allow the opposition to play out to the wings easily. While Chukwueze is not a pressing machine, he engages in cover shadows (man-oriented pressing) and cuts off passing options for the opposition.

Given how Chukwueze is used to playing next to a false 9/ ball playing 9 it makes all the sense that the Milan management actually got in Noah Okafor (previously targeting Thuram who is a ball playing striker) who is having the same characteristics as Chukwueze does occupy the vacated spaces. And at Villareal when he had a physical mezzala next to him who liked to advance forward, he now has a player with similar characteristics in Ruben Loftus Cheek at RCM/RM.

It has to be seen how Pioli deals with Chuk given how Setien didn’t give his wingers all the license to show case their individual ability or even cross the ball into the box whereas Pioli had given full freedom to Leao to choose the way he wanted to play to match his skillset.

STATISTICAL NUMBERS AND COMPARISON

So what story do the numbers say? To give a fair comparison I have used

X axis= Time the player took on a defender and beat him per 90 mins

Y axis = Shot creating actions + Goal Creating actions per 90

We can see that Chuk leads the pack with the most amount of defenders dribbled past while Pulisic (19/20) season considered and Leao come close to Chukwueze. Messias and Alexis are far off to the numbers put up by Chuk, Leao and Pulisic. Rebic (20/21 season numbers taken) is the worst of the lot. In terms of Shot and Goal creating actions Chuk comes behind Leao and Pulisic while Alexis, Messias and Rebic once again falls behind as it is common knowledge.

It is also worth noting that Leao and Chukwueze are very similar in terms of their style but what I observed is that style of dribbling seemed different. Leao liked to use his speed and physicality more and knock the ball forward and chase it while Chukwueze liked to keep the ball close to his feet and beat the defender. Graphics credit @DataMB_

CONCLUSION

Chukwueze had his breakthrough season in 2022/23 and approaching 24 years of age he is now on the verge of entering his peak. With Villareal looking for another mid-table season after Emery left them last season Chukwueze grabbed the move at the right time. Milan meanwhile has its fans prayers answered for a right winger since the time Suso left the club. With Pioli earmarking Chukwueze as his primary target and utilizing him for their last Non-EU spot over Taremi or Kamada, he now has his man and seems to have the tools to play better football.

Transfer Rating 9/10